Tuesday, 16 February 2016

Stephen Darori : Why Negative Interest Rates Will Fail

Stephen Darori : Why Negative Interest Rates Will Fail: It is now just a matter of time before the  US central bank  follows the central banks of Japan, the EU, Denmark,  Sweden  and...

Why Negative Interest Rates Will Fail


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    "an environment full of malinvestments and growing government constraints."
    Just so. The Russian people had lots of cash during the Soviet Era. What they didn't have was anything worthwhile to buy. (I know, because I was there in the early 1970's as a young US Air Force officer during the age of détente.) This article zeros in on the main problem--that expansion of money and credit causes disequilibrium in the structure of production. In other words, we are pouring scarce REAL capital goods, such as drilling equipment, into projects like oil from shale that will lose money. There really is no reason to produce oil from shale when Middle Eastern production costs are so low in comparison. And, please, don't bring up the old "we'll be energy independent" nonsense that is nothing more than a variation of a call for national economic autarky.


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        Yes, energy independence is a stupid idea, yet one that is embraced universally by politicians and cheered wildly by their admirers. We don't need to be energy independent any more than we need to be banana independent, titanium independent, or anything-else independent.


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            We need to develop a Public Lighting Authority to become Light independant. Some day, the sun may decide to raise the price of light, and we want to be prepared.
            Further (borrowing from Bastiat), if we ban the sun for unfair competition, we can experience economic growth of the lighting industry. Think of the jobs we'll create!


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                My favorite presidential candidate - Vermin Supreme - has a solid energy independence platform: harness the power of zombies through the construction of giant turbines and then dangle brains in front of them .


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                    His foreign policy is quite sound, as well, if I may fabricate a quote:
                    "We will glitter-bomb ISIS into oblivion. I don’t know if sand can glitter in the dark, but we’re going to find out."


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                        Oh yes, and don't forget he will invest in time travel research to go back and kill baby Hitler.
                        In all seriousness now. I think it is very important to have people like Vermin (his own views are not perfect) to mock the degeneration that we call the political process and modern politics.
                        If I vote (not likely), I'll either write in Vermin Love Supreme or Ron Paul.


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                            Please do vote... if it's important to have people like Vermin to
                            mock modern politics, then he deserves the reward of your vote. (Same for Ron Paul.)
                            I personally make it a habit to vote against the mainstream, simply because abstaining could be viewed as accepting the mainstream by way of non-participation. (I live a half-mile from my polling place, so it's not much effort to make my token protest vote.)
                            Some say by participating in the process you grant it legitimacy, but I disagree. When asked by the system if you would rather eat dog shit or cat shit, saying "fuck you" seems like a better, louder rejection than saying nothing at all.


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                                No way no how will I vote or even register to vote. Then I'll be on voter rolls and get robocalls. Even worse: I will be put on the jury duty list.


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                                    I considered registering to vote this year to vote for Trump (only because he pisses off both sides and I would love the political chaos), but I decided against it mainly because I didn't want to be on the jury-duty list.


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                              Patrick, I'd say there is plenty of reason to make oil from shale....if it is profitable. Apparently, these oil people were counting on higher prices with no end in sight. Fine by me if they go bankrupt.


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                                "few banks have credit-worthy customers and many banks are having difficulties collecting on existing loans"
                                What, is that a problem?
                                If you can't keep collecting on existing loans, you NEED new loans to generate income. The key is keeping bad loans on the books as assets rather than liabilities.
                                In a fantasy world where all "savings" and wealth are represented by (largely unpayable) debt or freshly-printed money, anything seems possible, and only one rule applies: NEVER stop kicking the can, because the moment the can is no longer in motion, the fantasy ends.


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                                    "The key is keeping bad loans on the books as assets rather than liabilities." And then convincing the FedR to come along and purchase this junk before anybody notices it is indeed junk. The FedR then redistributes the loss.
                                    It really is a silly system. Kick the can as you say. A giant game of global kick the can. Who are the adults in the room, I don't see any.


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                                    Petal?


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                                      An article from the end of last year on Fed rate-setting policy tools if anyone is interested.


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                                          So I briefly skimmed that link. I here a lot about setting rates. It seems to be the topic of conversation of late. Isn't that all just smoke and mirrors? Meaning, the Fed just tells its member bank appendages what the rate will be and all the operations are for confidence only?


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                                            Negative interest rates are a misnomer and simply not possible. What is happening should be called something other than negative interest. Call it, getting boned, but don't call it negative interest rate. To accept their terminology only further serves their cause.


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                                                Call it what it is....its a unauthorized tax on Americans, under the false flag of 'monetary stability', or was it 'full employment'...I forgot what the FED's stated mission was this go round...
                                                ...but make no mistake, it is just another form of taxation.
                                                The same could be accomplished by simply taxing reserves and/or deposits. But raising taxes requires a vote in congress, and people generally don't like tax increases, or politicians.
                                                The hidden way, they don't need your approval to get your wealth, and the politician doesn't get the flashback of tax increases during the next election cycle.


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                                                    That full employment mandate has got to go.
                                                    Full employment mandate = Create as much fiat credit as required to make as many jobs as possible no matter what side effects this may have, no matter if this creates job or kills jobs,no matter if these are real jobs, duplicate jobs, no matter who gets the money and how the salary is used ( drugs, guns, murder, sloth, gluttony) no matter what. Just crank out money, lots and lots of it.


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                                                  So...here's a question. How does negative interest fit into QE1-4? Doesn't the FED pay commercial banks interest to hold the QE money in reserve?
                                                  Where does these trillions slosh around to next if the FED starts charging them negative interest on reserves held with the FED?
                                                  My understanding of QE was that the money was sent to commercial banks to prop up thier balance sheets, followed by the FED's 'stress tests'.
                                                  Is QE trillions still sitting in commercial bank reserves? and are these the reserves that will be charged a negative interest? and if so, then where does this money flow to to get away from negative returns? or are they accepting some negative returns because they anticipate the QE money flowing back into circulation will cause steep inflation?
                                                  Of course...at the end of the day, these questions are irrelevant, as is the complexity of their illusionary 'system of monetary stability'. It is all mis-allocation of wealth.
                                                  //So, the more you interfere with interest rates, the more you create a misalignment between demand and supply across time, and the greater will be the adjustment to realign output with demand to return the economy to sustainable economic growth with rising standards of living. Negative rates will only ensure an ever greater misalignment between output and demand.//
                                                  Kick the can till it's to big to fail, then you're guaranteed a bailout coercively funded by the very people you've been quietly fleecing the entire time.


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                                                      Has anyone read The Federal Reserve Monster 1922 by Sam H Clark and Wallace Campbell? I'm currently reading it and loving the authors' style of English. Not very business-like but emotive, no 'beating around the bush' attacking style and gripping to read. Perhaps we need more of this style of English on here.


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                                                          "Credit shower" not *negative interest*. This guys gets it.